Blame the stockholders

Is it socially acceptable to admit that I’m looking forward to the next Harry Potter flick?

Meh, who cares, right?

The big news circling the release of the anticipated 6th film simply has to be the delay.  As many of you may know, Half Blood Prince was initially slated to be released in November last year.  Given the fact no one’s seen it yet, we must deduce that things have changed.  In fact, it’s true.  It’s been pushed back to this coming July.

Many had the same question: “What in holy hell made them delay the movie by 8 months?”

Many pointed to production delays.  Not the case.  The film has been ready to go since before the delay was announced.  Others thought it had to do with fallout from the writer’s strike.  Really?  You think a strike occurring in the States would affect filming done in England on a movie that’s already written?The culprit is more fictional than that.  And makes less sense.

Batman did it.

Yeah, remember that movie?  The one that broke records and made lots of money for Warner Bros?

I’ll tell you what I think happened: Feature film release dates are planned well in advance so the stockholders can feel like they know what’s going on.  Warner Bros. had no idea that Dark Knight would make that much money.  They also had no idea that Heath Ledger would die, giving the film that kind of PR that money can’t buy.

Warner Bros. had a dilemma on their hands.  Not only did the Dark Knight make so much moolah, but early predictions for the upcoming Harry Potter film said that would make buckets of money, too.

What’s the problem, you ask?  How can it be a bad thing to have two super money making machines in the same year?  Sure seems like a good thing.

It’s the stockholders.  See, if they kept to the plan and released Boy Wizard Movie #6 as initially planned during the Thanksgiving season, that year’s profit margins would look astronomical.  Everyone would be happy and they would gear up for a second year of depositing large checks.

Only there’s no guarantee that would be the case.  In the event they didn’t have another two mega huge blockbusters release, the second year would look like the entire company was in trouble, and the downward spiral would begin.

So to clarify, Warner Bros. postponed the Harry Potter flick not because they’re morons who just want to get on your nerves, but because they were thinking ahead, spreading the cash over two years instead of keeping it in just one year.

As an interesting side note, this decision led almost directly to the surprising success of Twilight.  When angsty teenage magicians got pushed back, it opened the way for angsty teenage vampires to make some money.

And there you have it: Warner Bros’s theatrical release decisions boiled down to a size just larger than a nutshell.

But seriously, why wait until July?  Why not June, or an April release?